180) Explain how the value of alpha affects forecasts produced by exponential smoothing. 181) The simplest form of the Illini are regression model is: y = a + bx. Based on this basic model, briefly explain how linear regression is used as a causal method of forecasting. 182) Discuss judgment methods... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

176) What is a tracking signal? How is it calculated? Explain the connection between adaptive smoothing and tracking signals. 177) Explain the role of regression models (time series and otherwise) in forecasting. That is, how is trend projection able to forecast? How is regression used for causal forecasting? 178) What... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

174) Identify and briefly describe four judgment methods for developing forecasts when no historical data is available to develop the forecasts. 175) For time series methods of forecasting, explain the distinction between the simple moving average method and the weighted moving average method.... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

169) Use the following quarterly data (sales in units) to develop the seasonal indexes: Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 2 3 4 Total 51 103 172 296 622 62 124 199 332 717 74 133 222 367 796 The manager predicts that the demand for next year will be 900. What are the quarterly forecasts for next year? 170) Repeated observations of demand for a product or service in their order of occurrence... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

167) Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 () of 79.0 and an alpha of 0.2. Second, calculate the 3-period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

165) Calculate three forecasts using the following data. First, for periods 4 through 11, develop the exponentially smoothed forecasts using a forecast for period 3 (F3) of 45.0 and an alpha of 0.3. Second, calculate the 3-period moving average forecast for periods 4 through 11. Third, calculate the weighted moving... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

159) Compare seasonal effects and cyclical effects. 160) What is a time-series forecasting model? 161) List three quantitative forecasting methods. 162) List three advantages and three disadvantages of the moving average forecasting model. 163) Describe three popular measures of forecast accuracy. 164) Distinguish between a moving average model and an... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

153) How are forecast errors classified? 154) What is focus forecasting? 155) Explain the coefficient of linear correlation. 157) What is focus forecasting? 158) Distinguish a dependent variable from an independent variable.... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

146) Explain what r = 0 means in regression analysis. 147) How do we interpret an r value that is close to +1? 148) What is the value of r = - 1 mean in regression analysis? 149) Describe the judgment method technique of forecasting. 150) Briefly describe what the causal method of forecasting... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

141) Describe five methods that marketing and operation managers can use to jointly manage demand . 142) Describe the term collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR). 143) Which forecasting technique would you consider for technological forecasts? 144) What is a tracking signal? 145) Explain the coefficient of determination.... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

131) The sample ________ coefficient measures the direction and strength of the relationship between the independent and dependent variables in a linear regression equation. 132) A(n) ________ forecast is a time-series method whereby the forecast for the next period equals the demand for the current period. 133) ________ is a time-series method... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

121) ________ is the process of adjusting price at the right time for different customer segments to maximize revenues generated from existing supply capacity. 122) ________ is the act of clustering several similar products or services so that companies can obtain more accurate forecasts. 123) ________ methods of forecasting translate the opinions... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

111) The management of a company specializing in securities analysis has been using two forecasting methods to follow a new stock issue. Forecast Method Month Exponential Smoothing Judgmental Actual Price 1 2 3 48 50 51 50 52 55 51 53 54 Which one of the following statements is TRUE? A) Based on MAD, the exponential smoothing approach is more accurate. B) Based on CFE, the bias of the judgment... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

101) Use the information in Table 10.7. The forecast for month 3 is A) less than or equal to 140 units. B) greater than 140 but less than or equal to 160 units. C) greater than 160 but less than or equal to 180 units. D) greater than 180 units. 102) Use the information in... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

91) Use the information in Table 10.4. Use the three-month moving average method to forecast sales for June. A) less than or equal to 20 units B) greater than 20 but less than or equal to 22 units C) greater than 22 but less than or equal to 24 units D) greater than 24... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

Table 10.2 The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly. Recent demand has been: Week No. Special Pizzas 1 2 3 4 5 6 50 65 53 56 55 60 81) Use the information from Table 10.2. Using a four-week moving average, what is the forecast for week 7? A) less than... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

71) Which one of the following statements about forecasting is FALSE? A) The method for incorporating a trend in an exponentially smoothed forecast requires the estimation of three smoothing constants: one for the mean, one for the trend, and one for the error. B) The cumulative sum of forecast errors (CFE) is... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

61) Which one of the following is an example of a time series forecasting technique? A) survey analysis B) Delphi method C) trend-adjusted exponential smoothing D) market research 62) The judgment methods of forecasting are to be used for purposes of A) making adjustments to quantitative forecasts due to unusual circumstances. B) forecasting seasonal demands in lieu... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

51) A trend in a time series is a systematic increase or decrease in the average of the series over time. 52) Forecasts will always be below or above the actual demand where a trend is present, unless exponential smoothing with two components is applied. 53) Forecasting analysts try to minimize the... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

41) Forecasting capacity needs is not generally considered important for service operations due to not having inventory. 42) Delphi forecasting refers to a change in the forces that have acted on demand in the past. 43) A quantitative approach is applied when using the Delphi forecasting method. 44) A causal model, time cannot... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

31) The tracking signal is a measure that indicates whether a method of forecasting is accurately predicting actual change in demand. 32) Some analysts prefer to use a holdout set as the final test of a forecasting procedure. 33) Combination forecasting is a method of forecasting that selects the best forecast from... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

21) In developing a regression equation of the form Y = a + bX, the intent is to use values of X to predict the likely outcome for the dependent variable Y. 22) When using linear regression for forecasting, the independent variable is the variable that one wants to forecast. 23)... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

11) Aggregation is the act of clustering several similar products or services. 12) Aggregating products or services together generally decreases the forecast accuracy. 13) Judgment methods of forecasting are quantitative methods that use historical data on independent variables to predict demand. 14) Time-series analysis is a statistical approach that relies heavily on historical... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

10.1 End-of-Chapter Problems 1) The repeated observations of demand for a product or service in their order of occurrence form a pattern known as a time series. 2) A backorder is the same as backlog. 3) Promotional campaigns are designed to increase sales with creative pricing. 4) A backlog is an accumulation of customer... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

215) A firm of six departments has the following trip matrix and current block plan of all departments: Dept. Name A B C D E F A -- 7 8 9 0 2 B -- 6 3 0 10 C -- 2 12 0 D -- 3 0 E -- 6 F -- A B C D E F a.What is the load-distance score for the current layout? (Assume rectilinear distance and that the distance between departments A and B is one unit of distance.) b.What would be... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

210) A company desires to locate a new facility. Based on preliminary analysis, the choice has been reduced to four locations: A, B, C, and D. These four locations were rated on a scale from 1 (worst) to 10 (best) on each of four criteria. Each criterion was also weighted... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

205) Explain the distinction between the use of heuristics, simulation, or optimization as analytical procedures to support location decisions. 206) What are four major questions that must be addressed as part of a layout planning effort? 207) Explain the distinction between facilities that are based on flexible-flow layouts and fixed-position... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

199) Why is the load-distance method a useful, but insufficient, tool for location problems? 200) Identify and briefly describe the three basic types of layout. 201) What is a REL chart? 202) Identify and briefly explain four of the dominant factors that influence location decisions for new manufacturing facilities. 203) Explain the concept... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

194) What is the difference between relative location and absolute location? Which is more closely linked to materials handling? 195) What types of performance criteria can be important in layout decisions? Be as complete as possible. 196) List and briefly define 4 of the 6 dominant factors in locating manufacturing facilities, as... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

181) When volumes are high, generally an advantage of ________ layouts relative to ________ layouts is less unproductive time is lost to changeovers and material handling. 182) Relative to ________ layouts, ________ layouts have the potential disadvantage of lost productive time in changing from one product or service to another.... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

171) A(n) ________ factor is one that cannot be evaluated in dollar terms, such as community attitudes or quality of life. 172) Good schools, recreational facilities, cultural events, and an attractive lifestyle contribute to ________. 173) ________ is a strategy where several competing firms cluster in one location to attract more customers... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

161) Automan, Inc. makes "tennis robots" on an assembly line with 9 tasks. The tasks and their times follow. Work Element Time (sec) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 20 30 25 25 10 20 15 45 50 The desired output rate is 50 robots an hour. The "theoretical maximum efficiency" on the line is A) less than 85%. B) more than 85% but less than or equal to 90%. C) more... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

151) Use the information in Table 9.20. What is the maximum idle time at any station, given the solution found by the longest work-element time method? A) less than or equal to 20 seconds B) greater than 20 seconds but less than or equal to 30 seconds C) greater than 30 seconds but... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

141) Use the information from Table 9.16. At what station is task F performed? A) Station 1 B) Station 2 C) Station 3 D) Station 4 Table 9.17 The Pennsylvania Appliance company is installing an assembly line to produce vacuum cleaners, and you, as an operations manager, are responsible for balancing the line. The work... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

131) Which one of the following statements regarding product layout is best? A) The product layout organizes resources around common functions. B) Two basic questions in line balancing are how many stations are needed, and what work elements are assigned to each station. C) The efficiency of an assembly line can be optimized... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

121) Use the information in Table 9.11. What is the load-distance score for the current layout? (Assume rectilinear distance and that the distance between departments A and B is one unit of distance.) A) less than or equal to 80 B) more than 80 but less than or equal to 95 C) more... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

111) Which one of the following characteristics is more likely for a product layout than for a process layout? A) More inventory B) Higher product customization C) Faster processing rates D) Jumbled routings 112) Which one of the following statements about product layout is best? A) A product layout groups workstations or departments according to function. B)... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

101) The Nelson Company has four distribution centers (A, B, C, and D) that require shipments of 20, 30, 40, and 10 units per week, respectively. Its three plants (1, 2, and 3) have monthly capacities of 40, 30, and 30, respectively. Shipping costs (in $) follow: Distribution Center Plant A B C D 1 2 3 40 20 10 30 20 50 10 30 10 50 40 30 What can... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

91) A grower and shipper of fresh gourmet herbs has determined the following demand forecast for the five metropolitan markets that the firm serves. Based on your calculations of the center of gravity, where should the new herb farm be located? Location Market x y Demand Forecast LAX ORD IAS DAY SPO 3 12 9 8 2 1 9 14 8 10 1000 1200 900 400 1500 A) x < 5, y > 5 B) x < 7,... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

81) Using the information in Table 9.4. If a facility were to be located at (15, 15), what would be the load-distance score? (Assume rectilinear distance) A) less than or equal to 5500 B) more than 5500 but less than or equal to 6000 C) more than 6000 but less than or equal... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

Table 9.2 Durham Toy, Inc. has five distribution centers at the location coordinates given as follows. The monthly demand at each center is also given. DC Coordinates Demand A B C D E (10, 12) (25, 30) (8, 15) (11, 20) (25, 6) 40 25 30 10 20 71) Use the information in Table 9.2. What are the x- and y-coordinates for the center of gravity? A) x ≥ 14, y... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

61) McKenna Restaurant wishes to open a new store. Based on the following subjective criteria, where should the new store be located? Factor Score by Location Factor Weight A B C D Markets Quality of Life Transportation Suppliers 35 25 20 20 8 6 4 8 10 4 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 6 4 6 A) A B) B C) C D) D 62) The point has been reached where a biotechnology research and development company must expand by building a new facility.... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

51) An advantage of flexible-flow layouts over line-flow layouts is that the process is less vulnerable to changes in product mix. 52) The group of location factors found to be most important for new manufacturing plants, on the average, is A) proximity to markets. B) quality of life. C) proximity to suppliers and... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

41) A mixed-model line produces several items belonging to the same family. 42) Proximity to customers is a more important factor in locating manufacturing facilities then it is for locating service facilities. 43) In order to attract the maximum number of customers, competing service businesses rarely locate close to each other. 44) A... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

31) In the fixed-position layout, the product is fixed in place, and the workers, tools, and equipment come to the product. 32) Layout flexibility means either that the facility remains desirable after significant changes occur or that it can be easily and inexpensively adapted in response to changes. 33) One common performance... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

21) The space in a bank where customers line up for teller service is not an economic activity centre. 22) A product layout groups workstations according to function rather than arranging workstations in a linear path. 23) Relative to product layouts, process layouts are less vulnerable to changes in product mix... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

11) One dominant factor in locating service facilities is customer proximity. 12) When outbound transportation costs are a dominant factor, manufacturing facilities should be located close to suppliers and resources. 13) Critical mass refers to several competing firms clustering in one location to attract customers. 14) The load-distance method is a qualitative model... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

9.1 End-of-Chapter Problems 1) Facility location is the process of determining a geographic site for a firm's operations. 2) Location factors can be divided into dominant and secondary factors. 3) Location is one of the factors in determining how conveniently customers can carry on business with a firm. 4) One of the advantages of... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

152) Draw the network corresponding to the following information. Also, complete the table, identify the critical path, and specify project completion time. Activity Immediate Predecessor(s) Time (Weeks) A --- 3 B --- 4 C A 6 D B 9 E B 6 F C,D 6 G D,E 8 H G,F 9 Activity Earliest Start Earliest Finish Latest Start Latest Finish Slack A B C D E F G H 153) Consider the tasks, durations, and predecessor relationships in the following network. Draw the network and answer the questions that follow. Activity Description Immediate Predecessor(s) Optimistic (Weeks) Most Likely (Weeks) Pessimistic (Weeks) A --- 4 7 10 B A 2 8 20 C A 8 12 16 D B 1 2 3 E D,C 6 8 22 F C 2 3 4 G F 2 2 2 H F 6 8 10 I E,G,H 4 8 12 J I 1 2 3 a.What is the expected time for activity B? b.... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark

149) Describe the four steps followed to determine the minimum-cost schedule for a project that is planned based on the critical path method (CPM). 150) Identify and briefly explain the four categories of project risks. 151) Explain what the close out phase of the project life cycle involves.... Solved Statistics 1 View Bookmark