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64) The last four weekly values of sales were 80,

Question : 64) The last four weekly values of sales were 80, : 2022297

64) The last four weekly values of sales were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units, respectively. The last four forecasts (for the same four weeks) were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units, respectively. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for these four weeks.

Sales

Forecast

Error

Error squared

Pct. error

80

60

20

400

.25

100

80

20

400

.20

105

95

10

100

.095

90

75

15

225

.167

65) A management analyst is using exponential smoothing to predict merchandise returns at an upscale branch of a department store chain. Given an actual number of returns of 154 items in the most recent period completed, a forecast of 172 items for that period, and a smoothing constant of 0.3, what is the forecast for the next period? How would the forecast be changed if the smoothing constant were 0.6? Explain the difference in terms of alpha and responsiveness.

66) The following trend projection is used to predict quarterly demand: y-hat = 250 - 2.5x, where x = 1 in the first quarter. Seasonal (quarterly) indices are Quarter 1 = 1.5; Quarter 2 = 0.8; Quarter 3 = 1.1; and Quarter 4 = 0.6. What is the seasonally adjusted forecast for the next four quarters?

67) Favors Distribution Company purchases small imported trinkets in bulk, packages them, and sells them to retail stores. The managers are conducting an inventory control study of all their items. The following data are for one such item, which is not seasonal.

a. Use a trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the equation).

b. Calculate forecasts for the first four months of the next year.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Month

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Sales

51

55

54

57

50

68

66

59

67

69

75

73

Solution
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Management 1 Year Ago 223 Views
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